Hajime Shimao

Assistant Professor of Data Analytics, Penn State Great Valley

Research

For my full curriculum vitae, please see my CV (PDF).

Working Papers

  1. Do Fair Algorithms Improve Welfare? Evidence from the Insurance Market (with Fei Huang and Warut Khern-am-nuai). Revise and resubmit at Journal of Management Information Systems.
  2. Collective AI Can Amplify Tiny Perturbations into Divergent Decisions (with Warut Khern-am-nuai and Sung Joo Kim). Under review at Science.
  3. Low-Margin Branch Points in Deterministic LLM Deliberation (with Warut Khern-am-nuai). Under review at AAAI.
  4. Direction, Not Just Margin: Boundary-Facing Perturbations Branch Deterministic LLM Deliberation (with Warut Khern-am-nuai). Under review at AAAI.
  5. AI-Delegated Search: Pricing, Search Quality, and Business Model Implications (with Tat-How Teh and Warut Khern-am-nuai). Under review at Management Science.
  6. The Computational Foundations of the Human World (with Marcus J. Hamilton et al.). Preparing for resubmission.
  7. The Complexity of Institutional Ownership (with Xiaoxiao Li).
  8. AI-Mediated Online Marketplaces (with Warut Khern-am-nuai, Rajib L. Saha, and Chayanin Wipusanawan). Preparing for submission to Information Systems Research.
  9. Functional Buffering in Urban Economies: Occupational and Industrial Turnover with Stable Skill Portfolios (with Xiaoxiao Li). Preparing for submission to PNAS.
  10. AI Trading Can Make Prices More Predictable but Less Informative. Preparing for submission to Science.
  11. The Cost Economics of University Consolidation: Scale, Scope, and Organizational Costs (with Xiaoxiao Li and David Hummels).
  12. When AI Agents Write the Rules, Prediction Can Become Undecidable (with David H. Wolpert). Preparing for submission to Science.
  13. Stakeholder Sentiment and Federal Reserve Policy Decisions (with Michael Curran).
  14. Institutional Legibility and the Learnability of Firm Returns (with Junichi Yamanoi).
  15. Cross-Country Transferability of Firm-Performance Models (with Junichi Yamanoi).
  16. Inferring Stochastic Dynamics Reveals Atypicality and Irreversibility in Social Change (with Youngkyoung Bae, Seungwoong Ha, Shuo (Luna) Yang, and David H. Wolpert). Preparing for submission to Nature Communications.
  17. Designing Probation Clocks: Learning About Research Talent under Multidimensional Performance Objectives (with Masahiro Asami, Xiaoxiao Li, and David Hummels).
  18. Deterministic but Not Robust: Semantic Coupling and Communication Topology in AI Organizations (with Warut Khern-am-nuai).
  19. Cost of Research and Education Activities in U.S. Colleges: Complementarity, Scalability, and Heterogeneous Efficiency (with Xiaoxiao Li, Michael Holton Price, and Christopher P. Kempes).
  20. Cross-Validation-Based Model Selection for Generalized Method of Moments with Application to a Dynamic Pricing Model (with Junpei Komiyama).

Published Papers

  1. So You Think You Are Safe: Implications of Quality Uncertainty in Security Software (with Warut Khern-am-nuai, Karthik Kannan, and Hooman Hidaji). Accepted at Information Systems Research.
  2. Welfare Implications of Fair and Accountable Insurance Pricing (with Fei Huang). Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2026.
  3. Major-Occupation Specificity and College Skill Production (with Xiaoxiao Li and Sebastian Linde). Journal of Human Resources, 60(4), 2025.
  4. Revisiting the CEO Effect Through a Machine Learning Lens (with Sung Joo Kim, Warut Khern-am-nuai, and Maxime C. Cohen). Management Science, 71(6):5396–5408, 2025.
  5. Ensuring Strategic Best-Response Fairness in Machine Learning: Enhanced Color-Blind Algorithm (with Warut Khern-am-nuai, Karthik Kannan, and Maxime C. Cohen). Information Systems Research, 36(4), 2025.
  6. The Past as a Stochastic Process (with David Wolpert et al.). Journal of Computer Applications in Archaeology, 2024.
  7. The Use of AI in Legal Systems: Determining Independent Contractor vs. Employee Status (with Maxime C. Cohen et al.). Artificial Intelligence and Law, 2023.
  8. An Observational Study of Health Care Provider Collaboration Networks and Heterogeneous Hospital Cost Efficiency and Quality Outcomes (with Sebastian Linde). Medicine, 2022.
  9. WikiArtVectors: Style and Color Representations of Artworks for Cultural Analysis via Information Theoretic Measures (with Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan and Helena Miton). Entropy, 2022.
  10. Scale and Information-Processing Thresholds in Holocene Social Evolution (with Jaeweon Shin et al.). Nature Communications, 2020.
  11. Nonconvex Optimization for Fair Regression (with Junpei Komiyama et al.). Proceedings of the 35th International Conference on Machine Learning, 2018.
  12. Reciprocity and Exclusion in Informal Financial Institutions: An Experimental Study of Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (with Takehiko Yamato et al.). PLOS ONE, 2018.
  13. Strict or Graduated Punishment? Effect of Punishment Strictness on the Evolution of Cooperation in Continuous Public Goods Games (with Mayuko Nakamaru). PLOS ONE, 2013.

Works in Progress

  1. Professional Graduate Labor-Market Exposure and University Finance (with Xiaoxiao Li and Warut Khern-am-nuai).
  2. Career Dynamics under Market Shocks: A Transition-IV Design and Counterfactual Career Simulations (with Xiaoxiao Li and Warut Khern-am-nuai).
  3. Selling the Switch: Information Opacity, Optimal Contracting, and the Collapse of Screening in Two-Sided Computing Platforms (with Chenglong Zhang and Warut Khern-am-nuai).
  4. A Quantitative Analysis of Human Rights (with David Wolpert, Charles de Dampierre et al.).
  5. The Price of Influence: Newspaper Ownership, Editorial Bias, and the Market for Media Control (with Shuo (Luna) Yang).
  6. When Markets Generate Uncertainty: Deterministic versus Probabilistic Learning in Asset Markets.
  7. Reading the Market: Information and Auctioneer Skill in Sequential Dutch Auctions (with Shosuke Noguchi).